Deliverable 1 - Provision of support on scenarios and models to IPBES assessments

Webinars

As part of the capacity-building work of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models aimed at improving the uptake and use of scenarios and models by a broad range of policymakers and stakeholders, the task force held the following a online webinars:

• Webinar on IPBES Methodological Assessment on Scenarios and Models 

For the recording, please click here. 

• Webinar on the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Scenarios-based Model Intercomparison (BES-SIM)

The IPBES expert group on scenarios and models, active between IPBES 4 and IPBES 7, within its mandate to support the use of scenarios and models in IPBES assessments and to catalyse the development of scenarios and models by the broader scientific community, fostered collaborations between the integrated assessment modelling community and the biodiversity and ecosystem services modelling community.  In a collaborative exercise, the two communities developed a procedure for using existing IPCC scenarios to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services, as well as to compare the results across models. This collaborative exercise, referred to as “Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Scenarios-based Model Intercomparison (BES-SIM)”, fostered a community of practice on global biodiversity and ecosystem services modelling, which made a synthesis of results available for use in the IPBES Global Assessment of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.

The webinar included a presentation on the BES-SIM exercise and its results, followed by a question-and-answer session. For the recording, please click here.  

Indigenous and local knowledge dialogues

Engaging Indigenous people and local communities (IPLCs) in the further development of scenarios is essential. IPLCs are key actors in the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity and ecosystems services. Their knowledge, values and perspectives can also be fundamental to fostering transformative change not only at a local but also at regional and global scales. Many communities hold Indigenous and local knowledge (ILK) passed down and enhanced through many generations, and this long-term knowledge can be used to inform and support future visions. As they often view humans and nature as an integrated whole, they may have specific ways of conceptualising paths forward for their communities, lands and waters, as well as assessing likely changes that will occur.

Working with IPLCs and their knowledge is therefore essential to move beyond science-driven scenarios, and to build scenario narratives based on multiple perspectives and values. If processes of scenario development are inclusive and transparent, then resulting scenarios can aim to have broader ownership, relevance, and uptake for decision-making at all levels, including by IPLCs. However, IPBES assessments have consistently highlighted a lack of global-scale scenarios that engage with ILK or that are developed with IPLC participation. Much ILK related to future visions has also remained undocumented or unexplored. The Nature Futures Framework aims to support the process of working with ILK within scenarios for nature futures.

To enhance participation by IPLCs in scenario work, and to begin to explore possible future work on ILK and scenarios, the task force on scenarios and models and task force on Indigenous and local knowledge decided to organise an ILK dialogue workshop as part of the external review for the NFF and its methodological guidance, which ran from 6 September 2021 to 31 October 2021. The objectives of the dialogue were to 1) engage IPLCs in reviewing the draft NFF and its methodological guidance and 2) work with IPLCs to start to build regional-scale scenarios of futures based on their knowledge, experience, values, principles and philosophies. For more information on the dialogue, please click here. 

A second Indigenous and local knowledge dialogue workshop for the IPBES assessment of transformative change and scenarios of the future was organised, in collaboration with the task force on Indigenous and local knowledge and experts of the IPBES transformative change assessment, on 13-16 February 2023 in Leticia, Colombia. The aim of the dialogue was to to provide a platform for IPLCs to discuss the draft assessment chapters with the assessment authors, structured around future visioning and pathway building exercises. For more information on the dialogue, please click here.