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Scenarios and models task force activities (2019 - present)

In 2019, the Scenarios and Models work was approved to be put under the responsibility of a new IPBES Task Force on scenarios and models (2019 to present). Building on the activities from the work plan of the expert group on scenarios and models as formulated during the expert meeting in 2018 in The Hague, the objective of the work plan of the task force on scenarios and models as part of the IPBES work programme up to 2030,  consists of: 

1) Provide support to IPBES assessments on scenarios and models, by

  • Mobilize experts for assessments and for scoping of upcoming assessments 
  • Mobilize reviews of drafts of assessments
  • Provide advice to assessments 
  • Coordinate/ stimulate the development of scenarios and models, tailored to assessments

2) Catalyse the further development of scenarios and models for future IPBES assessments, by

  • Further development of the Nature Futures Framework and scenarios
  • Identify / develop indicators 
  • Continued interaction with the broader modelling community 
  • Guide on conducting case studies to support the broadening of narratives, indicators, etc.
  • Further revision of scenarios and narratives 

To facilitate the development of IPBES scenarios, the task force on scenarios and models, supported by the technical support unit, will organize meetings and events such as:

  • Workshop on the nature futures scenario-building process. 24-28 February 2020, Hayama, Japan.
  • Meeting of the task force on scenarios and models, May 2020, TBD
  • Modellers’ workshop, TBD   
  • Stakeholder consultation workshop(s), TBD