Policy-screening (ex-ante) scenarios
Policy-screening scenarios are used in ex-ante assessments to forecast the effects of alternative policy or management options (interventions) on environmental outcomes. In policy-screening scenarios, a policy, or set of policies, is applied and an assessment of how the policy modifies the future is carried out (Figure SPM 2).
Policy-screening scenario analysis can contribute significantly to policy design and implementation.
Figure SPM 2: Policy-screening scenarios illustrated by a graph of changes in nature and nature’s benefits over time. The dashed lines represent various policy options under consideration.
Table 3.1: Combining scenario approaches and policy objectives (in the context of policy-screening scenarios ).
|
Approaches for using scenarios |
Brief summary |
Relevance for policy making processes |
Role of indirect and direct drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
|
INTERVENTION: Policy screening using ex-ante assessment |
Depicts the future effects of environmental policies |
Policy Screening and impact assessment of alternative policy options before implementation |
Driver projections are used as reference for policy options |
Examples of assessments which have used policy screening scenarios:
- Strategic Environmental Assessment of Hydropower on the Mekong mainstream (SEA Directive, 2001).
- Assessment of biofuel policies on direct and indirect land use change (e.g. Moser and Mußhoff, 2015, DOI: 10.1111/1477-9552.12114)
- Rethinking Global Biodiversity Strategies