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AFR_5.4.6_315

Most of the assessments focus on a similar set of key drivers. In a comparison with Chapter 4, there are many drivers that have not been considered in scenarios of future development pathways across Africa. For example, there are a limited number of scenarios and models which consider drivers related to invasive species introductions, rapid migration due to conflicts and natural hazards, and land tenure issues linked to land and water grabbing, or scenarios that address the impacts of urbanisation on energy demand, rates of charcoal consumption, sanitation needs, or pollution in Africa. The intensity and frequency of many of these underexplored drivers are likely to increase in the future and warrant further research and better incorporation into scenario studies. In addition, there are few scenarios that look at the compounding impacts of multiple drivers on the ability of social-ecological systems to provide ecosystem services (Adano et al., 2011).

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