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AFR_5_Executive summary_a_300

There are currently clear gaps in the type and distribution of scenario studies in Africa, with some subregions – such as central, northern and western Africa – being particularly poorly covered (established but incomplete). Most of the studies assessed in this chapter have addressed future changes in southern Africa (37%) and eastern Africa (18%). Almost 50% of the studies focused on local scales, while 26% covered multiple countries, and 18% are part of global scenario exercises. Only 11% of the assessed studies were conducted at the national scale, which is arguably the most useful scale for decision-making. The majority of the studies (80%) have had a broad exploratory focus, with only 24% focused on assessing specific policies or interventions. Furthermore, most studies (46%) used existing scenario storylines from other (often global) studies to explore future impacts on biodiversity and NCP in Africa; only 14% developed new integrated scenario storylines (5.2.2, established but incomplete). Furthermore, the links between NCP and human well-being are not often explored in much detail beyond climate change impacts on disease vectors and livelihoods {5.5}.

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