Scenarios and models
Deliverable 3(c): Policy support tools and methodologies for scenario analysis and modelling of biodiversity and ecosystem services based on a fast track assessment and a guide
Phase 1: (until 2016) The methodological assessment report on scenarios and models of biodiversity and ecosystem services
For sustainable development to succeed, we must move away from piecemeal decision-making about biodiversity and the benefits of nature to people. Science should be used to anticipate change – such as the loss of habitats, invasive alien species and climate shifts – to reduce the negative impacts on people and to help us make use of important opportunities.
The scenarios and models assessment presents a best-practice ‘toolkit’ of the approaches that can be used to decide on policies and actions by Governments, the private sector and civil society. Different valuation methodologies are evaluated according to different visions, approaches and knowledge systems, as well as their policy-relevance, based on the diverse conceptualization of values of biodiversity and nature’s benefits to people, including provisioning, regulating and cultural services.
The Assessment will also catalyse the further development and use of tools and methodologies on these issues. The aim is that such policy support tools will help guide decision-making, by taking into account the multiple values of nature and its benefits.
IPBES would like to acknowledge and thank all of the experts who contributed to the Assessment. To view the list of experts who contributed please see the “Scenarios and Models experts up to 2016” tab in the menu on the right.
This Assessment is already guiding the use of methodologies in all IPBES work and has also made a significant global impact – for instance at the 13th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD COP13) in Mexico, 2 – 17 December 2016, where a COP decision recognized its relevance for the planned fifth edition of the Global Biodiversity Outlook and listed it among the best available scientific information. The COP also encouraged Parties, other Governments, relevant organizations, the scientific community, stakeholders, as well as indigenous peoples and local communities to develop and use these tools and to contribute to their further development. The CBD decision may be accessed here: https://goo.gl/1nfvQR
Phase 2: (2016 - present) Building on the assessment
Further work during phase 2 of the work on scenarios and models will build on the Assessment, aiming to catalyse the further development and use of tools and methodologies on scenarios and modelling. The aim is that such policy support tools will help guide decision-making, by taking into account the multiple values of nature and its contributions to people. The work plan for phase 2 of the work on scenarios and models includes two main activities:
- Providing expert advice to relevant expert groups of the Platform, in particular those undertaking assessments, on the use of existing scenarios and models to address current IPBES needs, and
- Catalysing the development of scenarios and models by the broader scientific community for future IPBES work.
Please see the "Ongoing phase 2 activities" tab in the menu on the right, for an up to date progress overview of the phase 2 activities.