Target-seeking scenarios are a valuable tool for examining the viability and effectiveness of alternative pathways to a desired outcome, particularly when used in conjunction with appropriate decision-support protocols and tools.
Also known as “normative scenarios”, target-seeking analyses represent an agreed-upon future target and scenarios that provide alternative pathways for reaching this target. They start with the definition of a clear objective or a set of objectives that can either be specified in terms of achievable targets (e.g. in terms of the extent of natural habitats remaining, or of food production self-sufficiency) or as an objective function to be optimised (e.g. minimal biodiversity loss).