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Scenario Development and Scenario Planning

Aim of the resource

Scenario approaches range from highly exploratory to decision-oriented and from intuitive (e.g. visionary) to analytical (e.g. rational). They vary in the degree of complexity.
All approaches involve: selecting a scenario approach, developing storylines based on available data, identifying uncertainties and drivers of change and discussing scenario outcomes. It is an effective tool to analyze potential changes in an ecosystem.

Using the resource
Requirements for using the resource:
<p><strong>Time Constraints:</strong><br />
· Ranging from a couple of weeks up to a few months, depending on the extension and complexity of the scenario and the extension of participation. It is important to have appropriate time for organisation and reporting; especially if you consider participative scenarios.</p>

<p><u><strong>Costs:</strong></u><br />
· May be incurred for the organisation and facilitation of meetings, and possibly for modelling software.</p>

<p><u><strong>Expertise:</strong></u><br />
· A facilitator or moderator and experts with specific experience and good steering of the process are crucial. Participants do not need any expertise in building scenarios, they can learn quickly from the exercise.</p>

<p><u><strong>Equipment:</strong></u><br />
· Whiteboard, paper, cards, marker, projection screen, PC, special modelling software (to be used during meetings).</p>
Assessment of effectiveness of the tool or instrument
<p>See "Scenario development and scenario planning Method Profile (down below in "links").</p>
Contact details

Scenarios are developed for thinking about the future and longer-term planning - especially useful when considering the links between ecosystem services and development.


Subregions covered