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uncertainty

Definition Source References

Any situation in which the current state of knowledge is such that: the order or nature of things is unknown, the consequences, extent, or magnitude of circumstances, conditions, or events is unpredictable, and credible probabilities to possible outcomes cannot be assigned. Uncertainty can result from lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. Uncertainty can be represented by quantitative measures (e.g., a range of values calculated by various models) or by qualitative statements (e.g., reflecting the judgment of a team of experts).

Sustainable use assessment IPBES core glossary, 2021

Any situation in which the current state of knowledge is such that (1) the order or nature of things is unknown, (2) the consequences, extent, or magnitude of circumstances, conditions, or events is unpredictable, and (3) credible probabilities to possible outcomes cannot be assigned.

Pollination assessment

Any situation in which the current state of knowledge is such that: 1. the order or nature of things is unknown, the consequences, extent, or magnitude of circumstances, conditions, or events is unpredictable, and 2. credible probabilities to possible outcomes cannot be assigned. 3. Uncertainty can result from lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. Uncertainty can be represented by quantitative measures (e.g. a range of values calculated by various models) or by qualitative statements (e.g. reflecting the judgment of a team of experts).

Asia-Pacific assessment, Americas assessment

Any situation in which the current state of knowledge is such that: the order or nature of things is unknown, the consequences, extent, or magnitude of circumstances, conditions, or events is unpredictable, and credible probabilities to possible outcomes cannot be assigned. Uncertainty can result from lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. Uncertainty can be represented by quantitative measures (e.g. a range of values calculated by various models) or by qualitative statements (e.g. reflecting the judgment of a team of experts).

Africa assessment

see linguistic uncertainty, decision uncertainty, stochastic uncertainty, and scientific uncertainty.

Scenarios and models assessment

Any situation in which the current state of knowledge is such that: (i). the order or nature of things is unknown; (ii). the consequences, extent, or magnitude of circumstances, conditions, or events is unpredictable; and (iii). credible probabilities to possible outcomes cannot be assigned. Uncertainty can result from lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. Uncertainty can be represented by quantitative measures (e.g. a range of values calculated by various models) or by qualitative statements (e.g. reflecting the judgment of a team of experts).

Land degradation and restoration assessment